State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.27%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
16.39%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
16.79%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0230 | 4.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9199 | 128.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.1305 | 7.16*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9199 | 128.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1305 | 7.16*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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