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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

15.51%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

15.65%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

16.16%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0231
4.10***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9196
128.26***
γleverage0.1311
7.17***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0231
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9196
128.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1311
7.17***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days