State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.42%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
17.50%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
17.78%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0233 | 16.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 511.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1328 | 28.85*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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