State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.78%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
16.18%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.38%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7526 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8630 | 57.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2137 | -4.53*** |
| γ2 | 0.3604 | 5.24*** |
| γ3 | -0.2317 | -5.10*** |
| γ4 | 0.0987 | 2.30** |
| γ5 | 0.0285 | 0.63 |
| γ6 | -0.0924 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 0.1044 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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