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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.05%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

19.43%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

20.76%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4380
7.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0927
10.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8930
92.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0047
3.91***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days