State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.05%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
19.43%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
20.76%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4380 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 10.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 92.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0047 | 3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
Other State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs