V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
32.70%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Week
32.14%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Month
29.85%
decreased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8631 | 267.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1506 | 40.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0486 | 3.15*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3576 | 3.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6157 | 5.47*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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