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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.80%

increased by 2.13%

1 Week

21.00%

increased by 2.33%

1 Month

21.23%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8623
265.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1512
40.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0469
3.23***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3421
3.52***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6315
5.98***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days