V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.80%
increased by 2.13%
1 Week
21.00%
increased by 2.33%
1 Month
21.23%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 265.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1512 | 40.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0469 | 3.23*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3421 | 3.52*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6315 | 5.98*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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