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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

32.70%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Week

32.14%

decreased by 2.12%

1 Month

29.85%

decreased by 4.41%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8631
267.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1506
40.31***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0486
3.15***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3576
3.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6157
5.47***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days