iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.65%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
14.08%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
15.36%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3103 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8547 | 66.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0162 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 0.0614 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -0.0926 | -5.60*** |
| γ4 | 0.0749 | 4.11*** |
| γ5 | -0.0469 | -1.80* |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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