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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.02%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

16.25%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

17.08%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 91% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0301
18.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1383
54.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8589
366.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2042
26.28***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5662
40.07***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days