V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.02%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
16.25%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
17.08%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 91% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0301 | 18.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1383 | 54.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8589 | 366.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2042 | 26.28*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5662 | 40.07*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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