V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
24.21%
1 Week
24.81%
1 Month
27.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 8686 trading days (~34.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.43 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0864 | 9.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 19.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8732 | 243.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1382 | 13.95*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.4344 | 18.56*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
8686 days
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