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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

24.21%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

24.81%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

27.01%

increased by 2.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 8686 trading days (~34.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.43 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0864
9.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1025
19.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8732
243.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1382
13.95***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.4344
18.56***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

8686 days