V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.56%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
15.11%
decreased by 2.98%
1 Month
11.75%
decreased by 6.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0387 | 27.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2135 | 60.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7584 | 191.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1377 | 20.41*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6718 | 14.33*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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