V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.15%
1 Week
14.35%
1 Month
14.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 40% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.74 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0412 | 7.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.2178 | 12.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7615 | 48.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.0971 | 3.27*** |
| δpower | 1.7406 | 3.76*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2178 | 12.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7615 | 48.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0971 | 3.27*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7406 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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