V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.91%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
14.23%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
15.31%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.37) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0176 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1038 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8787 | 77.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3692 | 5.10*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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