V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.07%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
13.31%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
14.15%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 9.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5999 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.1017 | 8.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9862 | 155.43*** |
| νDF | 9.2415 | 1.39 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5999 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 8.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9862 | 155.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2415 | 1.39 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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