V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.23%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
12.51%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
13.48%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6053 | 8.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 33.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9862 | 616.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1862 | 5.58*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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