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V-Lab

Baron First Principles ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

24.27%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Week

23.83%

decreased by 2.28%

1 Month

22.58%

decreased by 3.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Baron First Principles ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5842
5.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0782
4.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9413
64.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5526
1.06

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days