Baron First Principles ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.78%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
24.20%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Month
22.64%
decreased by 3.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5930 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9279 | 61.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1961 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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