Baron First Principles ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
22.91%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
23.43%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0392 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1604 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9561 | 135.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0456 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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