Baron First Principles ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.53%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
25.74%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
26.02%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5185 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 0.69 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7297 | 2.57** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -4.0706 | -2.73*** |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
Other Baron First Principles ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs