Baron First Principles ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
25.07%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
25.35%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
24.23%
decreased by 1.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5558 | 19.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2059 | 26.88*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0935 | 11.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8731 | 44.29*** |
Persistence:
0.659
Half-life:
2 days
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