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V-Lab

Baron First Principles ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

25.07%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

25.35%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

24.23%

decreased by 1.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Baron First Principles ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5558
19.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2059
26.88***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0935
11.78***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8731
44.29***

Persistence:

0.659

Half-life:

2 days