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V-Lab

Baron First Principles ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.70%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

24.66%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

24.51%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Baron First Principles ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0833
7.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1119
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8518
35.13***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days