Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
40.25%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
41.09%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
43.62%
increased by 3.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3849 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 8.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8906 | 65.77*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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