V-Lab
Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.54%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
36.44%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
38.50%
increased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3891 | 7.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 1.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8481 | 10.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1284 | 3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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