V-Lab
Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
47.31%
decreased by 2.88%
1 Week
46.28%
decreased by 3.91%
1 Month
43.87%
decreased by 6.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4065 | 7.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8256 | 9.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1222 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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