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V-Lab

Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

38.86%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

39.75%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

42.42%

increased by 2.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.8781
7.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0617
10.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9632
172.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.3648
0.78

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days