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V-Lab

Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

49.06%

decreased by 2.46%

1 Week

49.16%

decreased by 2.36%

1 Month

49.45%

decreased by 2.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.9974
8.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0708
9.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9556
137.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2819
0.85

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days