V-Lab
Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
37.58%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
38.83%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
42.47%
increased by 4.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4188 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0531 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8767 | 66.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0613 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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