V-Lab
Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.21%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Week
46.71%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
48.19%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4698 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 3.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 58.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0548 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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