Baron First Principles ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.25%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
22.33%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
22.60%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0723 | 4.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1214 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 44.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0973 | -1.27 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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