Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

12.31%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

12.54%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

13.33%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0216
19.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1096
40.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8736
340.87***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days