State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.31%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
12.54%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
13.33%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 19.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1096 | 40.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8736 | 340.87*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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