V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.21%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
12.52%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
13.48%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 188% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0341 | 36.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | 17.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7305 | 165.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2308 | 20.90*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on ETFs