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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.12%

increased by 2.65%

1 Week

15.08%

increased by 2.61%

1 Month

14.96%

increased by 2.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

-0.0081
-2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1647
25.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9465
291.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1427
-24.98***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days