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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.37%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Week

16.17%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Month

15.55%

decreased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7771
16.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1113
21.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9513
251.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8413
3.71***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days