V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Week
16.17%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Month
15.55%
decreased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7771 | 16.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1113 | 21.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9513 | 251.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8413 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
Other Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs