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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

21.35%

decreased by 1.82%

1 Week

20.73%

decreased by 2.44%

1 Month

18.85%

decreased by 4.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0412
19.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1198
29.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8273
163.24***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days