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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.39%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

14.35%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

14.36%

decreased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8002
78.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2191
25.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0154
1.98**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0356
1.98**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9455
34.67***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days