V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.39%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
14.35%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
14.36%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8002 | 78.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2191 | 25.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0154 | 1.98** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0356 | 1.98** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9455 | 34.67*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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