V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
13.59%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
13.96%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8087 | 89.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2187 | 27.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0257 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0566 | 1.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9127 | 15.81*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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