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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

13.59%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

13.96%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

14.73%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8087
89.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2187
27.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0257
1.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0566
1.50
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9127
15.81***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days