V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.45%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
13.70%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
14.41%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8084 | 89.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2190 | 27.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0255 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0549 | 1.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9144 | 16.19*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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