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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.81%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Week

14.02%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Month

14.69%

decreased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0362
14.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2861
40.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6819
131.54***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days