V-Lab
Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.50%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
13.63%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Month
14.02%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 100% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0366 | 29.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1629 | 17.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7152 | 134.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1629 | 11.41*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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