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V-Lab

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.50%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

13.63%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Month

14.02%

decreased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 100% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0366
29.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1629
17.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7152
134.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1629
11.41***

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days