V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.22%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
19.26%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
19.43%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0202 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1515 | 33.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8371 | 247.21*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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