V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.91%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
23.78%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
23.35%
decreased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0074 | 9.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1462 | 24.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 1,046.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0196 | -3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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