iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
21.00%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
21.16%
increased by 0.98%
1 Month
21.76%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 184% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 184% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0150 | 1.39 |
| αARCH | 0.1532 | 10.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9869 | 244.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0735 | -4.91*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0150 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1532 | 10.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9869 | 244.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0735 | -4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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