V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.25%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
17.56%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
18.46%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0241 | 8.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8671 | 195.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1272 | 25.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0113 | 7.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0577 | 6.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9373 | 94.65*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs