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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

17.25%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

17.56%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

18.46%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0241
8.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8671
195.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1272
25.56***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0113
7.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0577
6.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9373
94.65***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days