V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
15.55%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.97%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
17.21%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0242 | 2.36** |
| βGARCH | 0.8664 | 67.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1272 | 7.13*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0116 | 1.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0593 | 2.09** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9356 | 30.39*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 2.36** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8664 | 67.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1272 | 7.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0116 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0593 | 2.09** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9356 | 30.39*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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