V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.45%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.95%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
17.60%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0243 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8658 | 194.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1276 | 25.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0118 | 7.59*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0601 | 6.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9348 | 91.03*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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