V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.47%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
1.46%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
1.45%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.08 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0080 | 0.74 |
| αARCH | 0.0940 | 1.46 |
| βGARCH | 0.9532 | 16.63*** |
| νDF | 4.0788 | 0.83 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0080 | 0.74 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 16.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0788 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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