V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
1.35%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
1.35%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
1.34%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 5.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9728 | 142.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6366 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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