SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.94%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.91%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.81%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 4.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0088 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.0951 | 1.56 |
| βGARCH | 0.9575 | 20.30*** |
| νDF | 4.1995 | 0.86 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0088 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0951 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 20.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1995 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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