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SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

1.47%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

1.46%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

1.45%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

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graph of SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0080
0.74
αARCH0.0940
1.46
βGARCH0.9532
16.63***
νDF4.0788
0.83

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0080
0.74
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0940
1.46
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9532
16.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0788
0.83

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days