SLW Short Duration Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.74%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
1.72%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
1.65%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0892 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 153.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0016 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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