V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.47%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.49%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.49%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7961 | 4.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.1073 | 1.10 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 34.5353 | 3.97*** |
| γ2 | -55.7740 | -3.95*** |
| γ3 | 26.1705 | 2.98*** |
0.107
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7961 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1073 | 1.10 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 34.5353 | 3.97*** |
| γ2 | -55.7740 | -3.95*** |
| γ3 | 26.1705 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.107
Half-life:
0 days
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