SLW Short Duration Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.56%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.56%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.56%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7231 | 4.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0904 | 1.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 26.4471 | 3.62*** |
| γ2 | -43.7506 | -3.68*** |
| γ3 | 21.2272 | 2.81*** |
0.090
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7231 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 1.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 26.4471 | 3.62*** |
| γ2 | -43.7506 | -3.68*** |
| γ3 | 21.2272 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.090
Half-life:
0 days
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