V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
2.10%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
2.10%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.12%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 914 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9918 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9992 | 40.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.6694 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
914 days
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