SLW Short Duration Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
2.25%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
2.36%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.38%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6532 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 15.9335 | 3.03*** |
| γ2 | -25.2403 | -3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.111
Half-life:
0 days
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