SLW Short Duration Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
0.08%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
0.07%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
0.06%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5618 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0883 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4998 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0001 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0075 |
Persistence:
0.400
Half-life:
1 days
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