SLW Short Duration Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.68%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.74%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
1.85%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.2824 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0010 | 111.89*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 87.10*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.282
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2824 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 111.89*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 87.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.282
Half-life:
1 days
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