V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.93%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
2.51%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
4.10%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.4573 | |
| βGARCH | 0.2242 | |
| γleverage | 0.4993 | |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0531 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3120 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0001 |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4573 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2242 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4993 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0531 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3120 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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