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Strive 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

12.18%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

12.44%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.23%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Strive 500 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 16, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 7.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9596
1.70*
αARCH0.0783
2.49**
βGARCH0.9646
52.74***
νDF7.4021
0.47

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9596
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0783
2.49**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9646
52.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4021
0.47

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days