V-Lab
Strive 500 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.18%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
12.44%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
13.23%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 16, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 7.40 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9596 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0783 | 2.49** |
| βGARCH | 0.9646 | 52.74*** |
| νDF | 7.4021 | 0.47 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9596 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 2.49** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 52.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4021 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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