V-Lab
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
4.30%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
4.63%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 210 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5256 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1275 | 72.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 2,473.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0064 | 16.56*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
210 days
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