V-Lab
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.62%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
3.73%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
4.11%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 216 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5256 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1288 | 71.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 2,602.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1802 | 15.25*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
216 days
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