Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.09%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
4.18%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
4.52%
increased by 1.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5257 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1279 | 72.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 2,498.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0330 | 16.40*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
212 days
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