V-Lab
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
3.73%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
3.83%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
4.16%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8083 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1590 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8247 | 39.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0058 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | 0.0506 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -0.1132 | -3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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