Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4.95%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
5.12%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.67%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8225 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1576 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8253 | 39.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | 0.0259 | 0.84 |
| γ3 | -0.0597 | -4.01*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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