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V-Lab

Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.26%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

3.38%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

3.74%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2106
2.54**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1678
6.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8009
35.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.1410
-2.37**
γ21.6739
2.56**
γ3-0.8555
-3.11***
γ40.8780
2.95***
γ5-1.2487
-3.78***
γ61.3006
3.98***
γ7-0.8167
-2.52**
γ80.3470
1.22
γ9-0.4654
-2.08**
γ100.5067
3.00***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days