V-Lab
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.84%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
5.02%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
5.63%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8082 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8253 | 39.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0152 | 0.72 |
| γ2 | 0.0267 | 0.88 |
| γ3 | -0.0606 | -4.12*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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