V-Lab
Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.26%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
3.38%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.74%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2106 | 2.54** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 6.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8009 | 35.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1410 | -2.37** |
| γ2 | 1.6739 | 2.56** |
| γ3 | -0.8555 | -3.11*** |
| γ4 | 0.8780 | 2.95*** |
| γ5 | -1.2487 | -3.78*** |
| γ6 | 1.3006 | 3.98*** |
| γ7 | -0.8167 | -2.52** |
| γ8 | 0.3470 | 1.22 |
| γ9 | -0.4654 | -2.08** |
| γ10 | 0.5067 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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