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V-Lab

Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5.05%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

5.11%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

5.35%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Invesco Bloomberg Enhanced Fallen Angels ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
12.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0327
10.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8984
270.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1377
14.83***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days