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V-Lab

Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

10.70%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

11.00%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

11.59%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5816
6.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0590
4.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
59.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9549
0.73

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days