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Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.53%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

11.55%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

11.59%

increased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 7.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5374
2.59***
αARCH0.0645
1.60
βGARCH0.8959
15.07***
νDF7.3931
0.20

0.896

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5374
2.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0645
1.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8959
15.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3931
0.20

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days