V-Lab
Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.53%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
11.55%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
11.59%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 7.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5374 | 2.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0645 | 1.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.8959 | 15.07*** |
| νDF | 7.3931 | 0.20 |
0.896
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5374 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 15.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3931 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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