V-Lab
Hartford Alpha Capture Value ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
10.88%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
11.62%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
12.46%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8609 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1405 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6366 | 3.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0358 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.777
Half-life:
3 days
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