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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.14%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

14.19%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

14.32%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 12.78 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8500
0.76
αARCH0.0164
0.16
βGARCH0.9514
1.20
νDF12.7791
0.01

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8500
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0164
0.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9514
1.20
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

12.7791
0.01

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days