V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
13.05%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
13.14%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
13.41%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 16.23 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8073 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0219 | 0.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.9639 | 3.38*** |
| νDF | 16.2259 | 0.02 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8073 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 3.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 16.2259 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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