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Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

13.05%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

13.14%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

13.41%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 16.23 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8073
1.29
αARCH0.0219
0.59
βGARCH0.9639
3.38***
νDF16.2259
0.02

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8073
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
0.59
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9639
3.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

16.2259
0.02

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days