V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.54%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
14.61%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
14.79%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9041 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0136 | 0.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9347 | 1.90* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9645 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
Other Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs