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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.32%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

14.38%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

14.54%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8770
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0140
0.26
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9431
2.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7403
0.02

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days