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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.54%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

14.61%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

14.79%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9041
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0136
0.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9347
1.90*
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9645
0.02

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days