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Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.54%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

13.59%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

13.75%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 17.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 17.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8070
1.33
αARCH0.0194
0.60
βGARCH0.9636
2.86***
νDF17.0993
0.01

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8070
1.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
0.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9636
2.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

17.0993
0.01

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days