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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.83%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

14.88%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

15.03%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9236
1.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0107
0.09
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9296
1.00
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6917
0.01

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

9 days