Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.54%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
13.59%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
13.75%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 17.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 17.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8070 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0194 | 0.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.9636 | 2.86*** |
| νDF | 17.0993 | 0.01 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8070 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 0.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9636 | 2.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 17.0993 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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