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Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

15.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

15.10%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 6.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.9052
0.19
αscore0.0000
0.00
βpersistence0.9758
1.47
νDF6.2578
0.04

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.9052
0.19
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0000
0.00
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9758
1.47
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2578
0.04

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days