Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
14.88%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
15.03%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9236 | 1.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0107 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9296 | 1.00 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6917 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
9 days
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