Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.77%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
14.83%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
15.02%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9997 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0168 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9323 | 5.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0675 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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