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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

14.77%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

14.83%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

15.02%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9997
4.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0168
0.39
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9323
5.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0675
-0.06

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days