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Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.60%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

11.60%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

11.62%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8488
5.58***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9964
0.87
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-8.8014
-0.20
γ211.7312
0.60

0.996

Persistence

193d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8488
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9964
0.87
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-8.8014
-0.20
γ211.7312
0.60

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

193 days