V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.10%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
14.19%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
14.44%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0266 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 0.49 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9302 | 6.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1147 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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