Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
11.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
11.62%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~193 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8488 | 5.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9964 | 0.87 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -8.8014 | -0.20 |
| γ2 | 11.7312 | 0.60 |
0.996
Persistence193d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8488 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 0.87 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -8.8014 | -0.20 |
| γ2 | 11.7312 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
193 days
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