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Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

8.01%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

7.57%

increased by 0.98%

1 Month

7.58%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0051
βGARCH0.2724
γleverage-0.0041
λ₁tau intercept0.0163
λ₂forecast adj.0.0252
λ₃tau persistence0.7587

0.275

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0051
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2724
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0041
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0163
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0252
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7587

Persistence:

0.275

Half-life:

1 days