V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.42%
1 Week
51,827,956,239,851.87%
1 Month
1,503,439,257,170,039,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1901 | 84.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 46.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4147 | 12.26*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.440
Half-life:
1 days
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