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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

8.34%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

10.58%

increased by 2.38%

1 Month

10.37%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.09
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.05
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
94.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4286
38.01***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3018
289.61***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days