V-Lab
Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.34%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
10.58%
increased by 2.38%
1 Month
10.37%
increased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 94.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4286 | 38.01*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3018 | 289.61*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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