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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

7.42%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Week

51,827,956,239,851.87%

increased by 51,827,956,239,842.60%

1 Month

1,503,439,257,170,039,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 1,503,439,257,170,039,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.19
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1901
84.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
46.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4147
12.26***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.440

Half-life:

1 days