Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.63%
increased by 12.82%
1 Week
17.69%
increased by 10.88%
1 Month
13.71%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9663 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0931 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4973 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2362 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0524 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0016 |
Persistence:
0.811
Half-life:
3 days
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