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V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.63%

increased by 12.82%

1 Week

17.69%

increased by 10.88%

1 Month

13.71%

increased by 6.90%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9663
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0931
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4973
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2362
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0524
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0016

Persistence:

0.811

Half-life:

3 days