Skip to main content
V-Lab

Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

10.11%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

10.11%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

10.11%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7071
5.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1974
0.11
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-8.9347
-2.57**

Persistence:

0.197

Half-life:

0 days