Calamos Nasdaq Autocallable Income ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.38%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
9.34%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
9.24%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8511 | 2.24** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0402 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8857 | 4.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -6.0536 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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