V-Lab
Calamos Nasdaq Autocallable Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.92%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
12.07%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
12.49%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 24.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6949 | 14.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 4.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 69.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 24.6577 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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