Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.15%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
14.40%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
15.01%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.48) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0681 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8624 | 18.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4848 | 8.18*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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